Forecast Update for Pakistan Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Pakistan GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, down from 3.2%. The IMF expects the country’s economy to grow by 4% in 2026. This reduction is similar to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) growth projection of 3% for Pakistan in the fiscal year 2024-25.
| Forecast | IMF GDP Growth (2025) | Previous Projection (October 2024) | ADB GDP Growth (2024-25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 3% | 3.2% | 3% |
Global Economic Growth Projections
IMF Global Economic Outlook
The IMF’s report also estimates global growth to be 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, slightly below the historical average of 3.7%. Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. However, inflation remains persistent in some regions, especially due to political instability and policy shifts.
| Global Indicator | 2025 Forecast | 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Global GDP Growth | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Global Inflation | 4.2% | 3.5% |
Commodity Prices Outlook for 2025
Energy and Non-Fuel Commodities
The IMF predicts a 2.6% decline in energy commodity prices in 2025, while non-fuel commodity prices are expected to rise by 2.5%. This forecast is influenced by weather conditions that impact large commodity producers.
| Commodity Type | Price Change Forecast (2025) |
|---|---|
| Energy Commodities | -2.6% |
| Non-Fuel Commodities | +2.5% |
Growth Projections for Major Economies
Key Economies Performance
The IMF forecasts a 2.7% growth for the United States in 2025, with a decline to 2.1% in 2026. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is projected to experience weaker growth of 1% in 2025, recovering slightly to 1.4% in 2026.
| Economy | 2025 Growth Forecast | 2026 Growth Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Euro Area | 1% | 1.4% |
| United Kingdom | 1.6% | 1.5% |
Economic Growth in China and India
China and India Economic Growth
China’s GDP growth is expected to be 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with a need for more domestic demand-driven growth. India, on the other hand, is projected to maintain a strong growth rate of 6.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
| Country | 2025 Growth Forecast | 2026 Growth Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| China | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| India | 6.5% | 6.5% |
A Mixed Economic Outlook
The IMF’s revised forecast for Pakistan’s GDP growth underscores the challenges the country faces in achieving higher growth. While global growth is forecast to be stable, inflation and economic uncertainties may continue to affect countries worldwide.
